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ADB maintains stable outlook for Asia

By Swati Deshpande,

Added 13 December 2016

A slight slowdown in India has trimmed the region’s growth

Economic growth in developing Asia remains broadly stable, but a slight slowdown in India has trimmed the region's growth outlook for 2016, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.

In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2016 Update report, ADB has downgraded 2016 growth to 5.6%, below its previous projection of 5.7%. For 2017, growth remains unchanged at 5.7%.

"Asian economies continue their robust expansion in the face of global economic uncertainties," said ADB Deputy Chief Economist Juzhong Zhuang. "Structural reforms to boost productivity, improve investment climate, and support domestic demand can help maintain growth momentum into the future."

Combined growth for the major industrial economies exceeded expectations in the Update, ticking up 0.1 percentage point to 1.5% in 2016. Growth in 2017 is maintained at 1.8%. Robust consumer spending supported the US economy, with supportive monetary policy and improved labor markets fueling growth in the euro area. Japan's expansion, meanwhile, will be buoyed by strong exports, despite the stronger local currency.

ADB has downgraded the forecast in South Asia from 6.9% to 6.6% in 2016. Growth will bounce back in 2017, reaching 7.3%. India's tempered growth projection to 7.0% from the previously forecasted 7.4% in 2016 is due to weak investments, a slowdown in the country's agriculture sector, and the lack of available cash due to the government's decision to ban high-denomination banknotes. This will likely affect largely cash-based sectors in the country including small- and medium-scale businesses. The effects of the transition are expected to be short-lived and the Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.8% in 2017.

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