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GDP growth for FY16 pegged at 8.1 pc: ASSOCHAM

By Niranjan Mudholkar,

Added 22 December 2015

Mid Year Review makes optimistic forecast of nine per cent and above growth in the next financial year of 2016-17

India will truly live up to its reputation of being the bright spot in an otherwise hazy horizon of global economy with a "likely" GDP growth of over eight per cent and "very likely" acceleration of 7.8- 8 per cent in the current financial year, an ASSOCHAM Mid Year Review has pointed out.

The Review made quite an optimistic forecast of nine per cent and above growth in the next financial year of 2016-17 if the government and the Congress come together and clear the Goods and Services Constitutional Amendment Bill in Parliament and the roll out of the major tax reforms takes place from April, 2016.

"The renewed optimism comes about despite continuation of a global meltdown in commodity prices with crude oil trading well below USD 40 barrel mark while the entire metal pack is melting away in the heat of crisis. But , it is the domestic demand pick- up, supported by government investment and the services sector , especially transport, hotels and  trade that will push the  Indian economy  to cross the psychologically important  level of eight per cent," the Mid Year Review of the chamber said. So, the ASSOCHAM Review pegs the GDP growth for fiscal 2015-16 at 8.1-8.2 per cent.

It said the latest revival in manufacturing which helped overall Index of Industrial Production to reach 9.8 per cent in October, 2015 along with robust pick up electricity and capital goods would lead the growth trajectory triggering, in the process, lot more activities in the services.

The number of passengers handled by civil aviation in second quarter of the current fiscal went up by 17 per cent. So was the case with commercial vehicles which registered a growth of 10.7 per cent , another indicator of pick up in the economic activity.

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