After "disruptions" like lingering demonetisation effect and GST roll-out, the Indian economy may reach a 7 per cent growth in 2018 with government policies tilting towards the stress-ridden rural landscape in the penultimate year before the Lok Sabha elections, the ASSOCHAM Year-Ahead Outlook (AYAO) pointed out.
Against GDP growth of 6.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2017-18, the economic expansion may reach the crucial 7 per cent mark by the end of September 2018 quarter , according to the AYAO forecast, while inflation may range between 4-5.5 per cent towards the second half of the next calendar year with the Monsoon being a key imponderable.
"Our projections for 7 per cent GDP growth are based on the assumption of stability in the government policies, good Monsoon, pick-up in industrial activity and credit growth as also stability in the foreign exchange rates. The worries on account of crude oil shooting up are likely to abate, if there are no fresh geo-political shockers," said ASSOCHAM President Sandeep Jajodia.
While the underlying bullish sentiment should continue to prevail in the Indian stock market in 2018, the returns on equity may not be as robust as in 2017. "This is because the 2017 bull run has already factored in the return of growth steadiness in 2018 and the corporate earnings witnessing a pick -up."
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